New facts show S.F. is nonetheless a renter’s industry. Will Bay Place price ranges rebound in the spring?

San Francisco’s rental price tag drop picked up yet again in November, with facts showing that it is still a renter’s sector in a lot of the Bay Space.

Decreases in San Francisco, even now the most pricey rental market in the nation, are now hunting a bit far more like typical seasonal tendencies than the pandemic free of charge-tumble from the spring and summertime, according to analysts from listing companies Condominium Checklist and Zumper.

But the pandemic is serving to amplify individuals tendencies as an enhance in vacancies has set downward force on rates. And analysts say a rebound in the current market is unlikely throughout the winter season months.

The spring continues to be a significant unknown, with key variables including reopening, task trends and the predicted rollout of coronavirus vaccines.

San Francisco

In November, the month-above-month decrease in San Francisco hire was 3.4% with an ordinary price tag of $2,054 for a one particular-bedroom condominium, and $2,377 for a two-bed room device, in accordance to the December San Francisco rent report from listings internet site Condominium Checklist.

The site utilizes U.S. Census and Office of Housing and City Enhancement stats to include more mature models and decreased income neighborhoods in its analysis.

“This month’s quantities occur as less of a shock than past months,” claimed Rob Warnock, research affiliate for Apartment Record. “There is seasonality in the rental market. Charges usually increase through the summer season and cool in the winter, so historically rents are dropping all through this time of calendar year.”

Warnock mentioned a seasonal dip typically occurs around the vacations and lasts till early spring, when individuals start going once again. In November for the previous three several years, rental costs have dropped, but this year’s outcome has been amplified by the pandemic.

“I assume it is safe and sound to hope rents will continue to be awesome for the coming few months,” he said. “When springtime rolls all around, the current market could start rebounding if it begins to appeal to renters again into the region.”

That will depend on many elements, Warnock reported, together with the toughness of the regional occupation industry, whether places of work are reopened, and the advancement and distribution of coronavirus vaccines.

A further important listings website, Zumper, analyzes rental knowledge from much more than 1 million energetic listings across the nation and involves new design, and excludes listings that are at this time occupied or no for a longer period accessible. Its December nationwide rent report displays a thirty day period-over-month rental price decrease of 3.6% in San Francisco, compared to previous month when it confirmed the cheapest month to month minimize considering that April at 1.1%. The common a single-bed room expense $2,700, with the price tag of a two-bed room at $3,570.

“Rent decreases in San Francisco picked up again last thirty day period soon after slowing down the month prior,” reported Zumper analyst Neil Gerstein. “The reduce in pickup last thirty day period could point out that the rental cost fallout in the Bay Area is not around nonetheless, and will possible persist into 2021, specially with migration out of the Bay Place trending upward.”

Percentage change in San Francisco rent over the past 12 months.

San Francisco nevertheless stays the most expensive market in the state but has witnessed the greatest declines in rents 12 months more than yr. Apartment Record experiences a 25.5% calendar year above 12 months decrease in November in contrast to the same time previous year, and a minimize of 24.5% because March. Zumper calculated a 12 months above yr fall of 22.6%.


Zumper’s nationwide comparison of the premier cities displays New York as the next most expensive for renters, with a cost decrease of 3.1% in November and an common one-bed room lease of $2,470. Boston was 3rd, with a cost lessen of 2.7% and an normal rent of $2,150. San Jose was fourth, down 1.4% at $2,090, and Oakland in fifth, declining 1% month more than thirty day period with a median hire of $2,000.

Apartment List’s national analysis discovered the greatest hire declines all through the pandemic concentrated in huge, high-priced metropolitan areas, especially on the coasts. Seattle and Boston surged in advance of New York in month around thirty day period rental decreases. Prices dropped 5.6% in Seattle with a median two-bed room lease of $1,739, and fell 5.2% in Boston for an typical rent of $1,729. Phoenix observed the maximum rental increase of 3.9% for a median two-bed room lease of $1,150.

Bay Spot

Throughout the Bay Space, the next largest rent decrease in cities examined by Condominium Listing was in Oakland, down 3.3% in November for a median one-bed room cost of $1,660 and two-bedroom for $1,970. Redwood Town declined 2.4% and San Mateo went down 2.2%. Zumper identified substantial hire drops in Menlo Park, San Mateo and Mountain Check out, all down 5.1% each for a a person-bedroom.

The most significant thirty day period around month rental expansion improve was in Livermore at 4.9%, followed by Milpitas with rent escalating 4.8% and Vallejo in third at 4.3%, according to Zumper.

Hayward was the only Bay Place town examined by Condominium Checklist that noticed an enhance, at just .1%, with a median one-bed room rental price tag of $1,950 and two-bed room normal of $2,180.

“Looking at the whole Bay Area metro, rate progress yet again was negative on ordinary,” Gerstein mentioned. “Median 1-bedroom rates in Bay Space towns diminished 1.7% at a regular level on common very last thirty day period. In 12 months-about-calendar year phrases, median 1-bed room charges had been down 10.9% on typical.”

Kellie Hwang is a San Francisco Chronicle staff members writer. E mail: [email protected] Twitter: @KellieHwang